How to get a good night's sleep on Election Night
Since the post-World War II era, four presidents have lost the House of Representatives during their first midterm election: Harry Truman, Dwight Eisenhower, Bill Clinton, and Barack Obama. All four rebounded to win reelection two years later.
If you believe the polls, it seems likely Democrats will take back the House on Tuesday. But while the media will portray this as a major setback for President Trump, it might be the best thing that ever happened to him.
Sometimes losing is winning and winning is losing. This is especially true of midterm elections.
How to Go To Bed Early on Election Night
If you're looking to get smart fast on the midterm elections, you'll want to check out my special (and brief!) podcast with elections analyst and number-cruncher Henry Olsen.
Olsen's advice on how to watch the first couple of hours of election coverage is as follows:
Starting around 6 p.m. EST, the first thing to watch for is the Indiana Senate race and the House race in Kentucky's sixth congressional district. "If the Republicans win both, that tilts in a good favor," Olsen says, but "if they lose both, it's looking good for the Democrats."
Next, he advises, "look at the Florida Senate race, you want to look at Virginia [congressional districts] 2, 5, and 7, and you want to look at the Georgia governor race and Georgia 6 and 7."
And then, at 7:30 p.m. EST, it's Ohio, West Virginia, and North Carolina. "If it's 8 o'clock," he says, "and one party's clearly winning one way or the other, I can tell you right now, at that point, the direction the election's going to go in -- because the rest of the country is not going to suddenly reverse course."
You might not have to stay up late to see if the blue wave has materialized. Listen to our full conversation.
Then They Came For Me...
You’ve probably heard the famous confession: “First they came for the Communists, and I did not speak out-Because I was not a Communist…” Don't miss my podcast discussion about the new book, "Then They Came for Me: Martin Niemöller, The Pastor Who Defied the Nazis.”
This is a fascinating story, because Pastor Niemöller starts out as a right-wing nationalist who votes for Hitler, but then ends up at a concentration camp. Unlike the more heroic Dietrich Bonhoeffer, Niemöller's story is complicated.
Among the many lessons and themes, this book (and podcast) will help you understand why Hitler posed as a supporter of Christianity, but plotted to pervert its message, "Aryanize" Jesus, and, ultimately, destroy the faith.
Whether you're concerned about the seduction of modern Christian pastors into politics, or the horrible shooting at a Pittsburgh synagogue, this podcast discussion will prove both interesting and thought-provoking.
I Don't Need To Be Anything Other Than a Prison Guard's Son
The other day, I was showing an old high school friend my dad's old Bible, and I stumbled across a note, folded inside. My Dad was a correctional officer for 30 years, and it was one of the many letters my Mom received from inmates after he died.
I've never posted this letter before, but since stumbling upon this note the other day, I keep thinking what a tremendous testimony this is: "He always treated inmates fairly. If you were right, he would do all he could for you. If you were wrong, he would do what he had to do, but he was always fair." I'm left with two thoughts...
1. No matter what your job is, you are influencing someone--you are making a difference in someone's life!
2. How great a man do you have to be when even the inmates mourn the passing of a prison guard?
Matt Lewis ON The News
If you missed my appearance on CNN's Reliable Sources last week, here it is. And if that's not enough for you, check out this week's DMZ conversation with Bill Scher.
Lagniappe
Check out my Daily Beast column about how the "Rust Belt" that gave Trump the presidency is turning against him in 2018 ... Exclusively for Patreon patrons: Matt answers your questions here! ... Don't miss my podcast conversation with David Pietrusza about his great new book, "TR's Last War" ... And don't forget to rate and review us on iTunes--and support the podcast on Patreon!