Is the Democratic Coalition Sustainable?
The big story this week involved Rep. Ilhan Omar’s continued dabbling in anti-Semitism, coupled with questions about whether the Democratic Party would do anything to rebuke her.
This is also part of a larger story about whether the rising Democratic coalition is sustainable. Having already lost much of the FDR coalition (working-class white voters), the Democratic Party can ill-afford to create mutually exclusive standoffs.
One obvious question is whether moderate Democrats elected in the 2018 midterms can survive re-election if the public perceives politicians on the Left as too extreme. Some have even suggested that Jewish Americans might start to flee the Democratic Party.
In fairness, it is highly unlikely (at least in the short term) that Omar’s comments will cause Jewish Americans (who, are predominately Democratic voters) to flee the Democratic Party.
But this is just one of the potential problems facing a changing Democratic electorate. Consider some of the other tensions on the horizon that pit progressive values against each other:
Tennis legend Martina Navratilova, who is a lesbian, was pressured to apologize for saying that men who “proclaim themselves female” shouldn’t be allowed to compete in athletics against women. Will feminists remain silent if trans athletes begin dominating female sports?
The conservative website The Federalist recently ran a satire piece about a couple who aborted a fetus shown to have the gay gene. This may never happen, but one could envision a future that pits abortion rights against gay rights.
Recent news stories about human trafficking have created a rift between liberals who are “anti-slut shaming” advocates wanting to normalize sex work and those who view sex workers as victims.
In England, a primary school that taught kids about homosexuality (as part of a program to battle homophobia) was forced shut down after hundreds of Muslim students withdrew from the school. Can the Democratic Party simultaneously please gay rights activists, feminists, and devout Muslim immigrants?
Allegations that Virginia’s Lieutenant Governor Justin Fairfax (an African-American rising star in the Democratic Party) committed sexual assault have raised questions among progressives about whether the “believe all women” mantra should be taken literally.
Not all of these issues will come to a head. But as you can see, these questions pit progressive values against progressive values. It’s unclear whether the Left will be forced to reach some coherent conclusions regarding hierarchies, or whether these cases will be adjudicated ad hoc.
For now, more often than not, the victor of a given dispute tends to be the member of the group deemed most victimized—with the person who is the most intersectional (see Ilan Omar, a black woman who is a Muslim) holding the trump card.
For years, the Democratic coalition was able to survive amid contradictions and clashing coalitions. What, after all, did the feminist activist in San Francisco have in common with the union worker in Flint, Michigan? It turns out, not much. That coalition broke apart in 2016, and it seems possible that the emerging progressive coalition—in the era of Twitter and 24/7 cable news—will be forced to pick winners and losers. There is a possible scenario where the progressive movement isn’t big enough to accommodate all of these interests.
If it becomes untenable to please everyone, there could be some attrition. In that case, could we begin to see Jewish Americans and white individuals in the gay community joining the Republican Party?
We are currently in the midst of a crazy political moment. These are the kinds of times when reordering occurs. Nobody knows how this is gonna shake out.
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