All Over But The Shoutin'
Which America will show up?
Happy Election Day! —
As Oscar-winning writer William Goldman famously put it, “Nobody knows anything.” We see through a glass darkly. All we have are the polls, and they show the seven swing states to be a virtual tie.
The problem is that polls are premised on assumptions regarding the make up of the electorate, i.e., who shows up.
In this regard, if you make good assumptions, you get good predictions. And if you make bad assumptions… it’s “garbage in, garbage out.”
A recent poll showing Kamala Harris winning in Iowa made different assumptions than most, raising the possibility that things could turn out very differently than most pollsters expect.
Yesterday, Bill Scher of The Washington Monthly, and I grappled with this question, and Bill revised his electoral predictions.
You can watch our full conversation (less than 30 minutes) here:
If you’re in the center, hope for Harris — and a GOP Senate
My latest column for The Hill goes like this:
Want to hedge your bets against both the radical right and the radical left on Tuesday? Kamala Harris is the safer bet.
That’s because a Harris presidency would likely be checked by a Senate led by Republicans (not to mention a right-leaning Supreme Court). Donald Trump, in contrast, would likely enjoy unfettered, unified Republican control, which would likely result in a rubber stamp for anything and everything he — and JD Vance, Elon Musk and Tucker Carlson — dreams up.
It turns out, divided government has a pretty good track record, especially when it comes to spending:
… according to Manhattan Institute senior fellow Brian Riedl, “In recent decades…combining a Democratic president with a Republican Congress has produced the most fiscally restrained outcomes.”
That’s because “when a Republican Congress is paired with a Democratic president,” Riedl explains, “both the GOP’s natural deficit-hawk rhetoric and its partisan aspirations of curbing the president’s ambitions point in the same direction.”
Flashback to 2002!
This time of year, I always find myself missing the action and camaraderie of being on a political campaign. Before I became a political writer, I worked for several years as a Republican political operative. Keep in mind, this was in the “before” times. Things were simpler, then. But I must confess, it was a BLAST.
As we wait for the votes to come in today and tonight, I wanted to share this fun little video I put together. It includes some footage I have saved from a political campaign I worked on way back in 2002, in Frederick, Maryland. Perhaps it will remind you of how much fun we had when the temperature wasn’t quite so high. Enjoy.
Finally …
Please stay safe this Election Day! And don’t put too much trust in those early exit polls they show on cable news (they’re almost always wrong).
Watch a movie, go for a walk, stay sane.
If you want to get your mind off of the election, let me commend to you my wife Erin’s recent interview with former Alabama, Georgia college football coach Scott Cochran (a.k.a., “Coach Yeah”). His is a powerful story about overcoming addiction.
Thank you for reading this newsletter. If you like it, please tell a friend!
All the Best,
Matt