David French Predicts a Biden Victory
David French joined the podcast to talk about being politically homeless, Trump Derangement Syndrome, and why he believes the polls.
This week I had David French, editor of The Dispatch and columnist for Time, on the podcast to talk about being politically homeless, the perils of Trump Derangement Syndrome, and why Trump tarnishes the pro-life cause. He also revealed his 2020 presidential predictions—and why he thinks we can believe the polls this time around.
Click here to listen to our full conversation.
Here’s a lightly edited excerpt:
Matt: If I had to bet, I would bet that Joe Biden wins this election for a bunch of the reasons. For example, last time, Trump was running against Hillary and Hillary is not as appealing as Joe Biden. And last time, Trump wasn't president, so people could imagine whatever they wanted, maybe he was gonna pivot. Maybe he was gonna be more presidential. And then there's COVID, and Trump's inability to manage it responsibly. So, it just feels like logically, every single data point suggests that Trump should lose. But I do feel chastened by 2016. And let me bring this weird, here's a weird thing, but I think you will appreciate this: If Trump somehow wins this time, there will be a sense amongst a certain segment of the population that it has to be a God thing. Not just a miracle, like when we figuratively use the word “miracle,” but literally. If he does it again, man, you want to talk about a cult. There are going to be people who really think this is proof that like something supernatural was at play.
David: Yeah. Yeah. No, that's what I said about how he will be tied to the Republican grassroots in a way that no politician has ever been tied to a base of a party. I mean, not even, you know, we remember the ‘08, like sort of this cult of Obama, that Republicans made fun of, you know, Republicans, one of the more scathing ads of the cycle was John McCain's ad, making fun of that sort of cult of Obama. And, yeah, if this thing goes Trump's way, you will see a level of devotion to him unlike anything we've seen in American politics in our lifetime. I totally agree. And some of that devotion will have a very religious undertone to it—a very supernatural undertone to it. But just to give you a sense, let me put it this way. If he wins, I, David A. French, call for a total and complete shutdown of the American polling industry until we can figure out what's going on.
Matt: Totally, I think Frank Luntz basically said something to that effect as well.
David: Yeah, and so I would, okay, so it would—
Matt: Okay, so if this happens, it's gonna decimate the polling industry. I think it's gonna I mean, the media is in a very similar boat. Yeah, fairly or not, um, it's gonna make a pretty decent chunk of conservatives utterly convinced that he is King Cyrus, King David, whatever. And it'll radicalize the left even more than they already are. Ah, and you end up with AOC. Next time around, right?
David: Perhaps, I mean, or, you know, they sort of tacked to a version of the DLC. You know, that that gave us Bill Clinton, but I doubt that I think it would be the argument that would be very similar to the Romney, the republican fight after 2012, where the argument was, well, what we did was we were too squishy with Romney. And so we…
Matt: [Democrats will say] We tried it your way we got the irenic, moderate guy didn't work.
David: Yep. Exactly. But to give you a sense of how the magnitude of the polling fail that would occur is, if you just took every poll right now, I’ve been playing around with this 270 to win website, and the electoral college result would be 356 [electoral votes] for Biden and 182 for Trump. If the polls were off, in a pro-Biden direction by roughly the same amount they were off in a pro-Obama direction in 2012, it switches to 412 for Biden, and 126 for Trump. And even if they're off a couple of points against Biden, you're still looking at mid-350s for Biden and mid-180s, or so, for Trump. And so, as I said, you would have to end up with this sort of like call for the total and complete shutdown in the polling industry. And I'm not saying it's impossible. I mean, it's not impossible, because we don't know until we know. But there is one reason why I think I'm skeptical about that is I really don't believe that sort of mythical secret MAGA thing is a thing. And maybe that's because I live in red, Tennessee, but there is no such thing as SMAGA here, “Secret MAGA.” It is out and proud, man, it is everywhere. I have encountered “SPIDEN” secret Biden. But I don't even think that's much of a thing. I do think there's some secret reds in heavily blue areas and some secret blues in heavily red areas. But I think it kind of evens out.
Matt: I think the only viable explanation for how Trump could win would be, you know, there are millions of working class white voters in Pennsylvania who didn't vote in 2016. They are now registered. And they are now going to vote for Trump. It seems like a lot of things that have to happen. But am I right, like, that's basically the the way it happens?
David: Well, here's the wildcard though, and this is another reason why I say if you made me say who is going to surprise on election day, whether it's Biden or Trump. One of the reasons why I'm going to say “I think it might be Biden” is that early turnout is ludicrously high. I mean, we're at 74,741,000 early votes, which is a 54% of the total 2016 turnout. In Texas, it is 90.8% of the total 2016 turnout has already happened in Texas. In Florida 72% of the total 2016 turnout has already happened. In North Carolina, it’s 76%. And, look, I know you can read too much into these numbers. I know you can. And so take everything with a grain of salt. But in each one of these circumstances, it's clear that it's the Democrats who have banked a lead to some degree. And the higher those turnout numbers go, that means the extraordinarily higher the Election Day turnout has to go to reverse it. It's just sort of a math game after a while. Is it possible? Absolutely. Trump voters are more likely to vote on election day than Biden voters. Is it likely? It gets less likely the more that early vote number goes up and up and up and up.