GOP Dysfunction and Double-Haters

The hot topic today is Republican dysfunction, particularly in the House. I want to start with the exodus of Wisconsin Rep. Mike Gallagher, a young conservative Republican who helped spearhead the effort to force TikTok to sell. 

He’s a smart conservative, which is why it was disappointing when he recently announced he won’t seek re-election this year. 

He then surprised us again on Friday, when he announced he is simply quitting Congress altogether. 

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Back to Mike Gallagher. His announced departure comes on the heels of Colorado GOP Rep. Ken Buck’s announcement that he is also heading for the door. 

Gallagher’s exodus leaves Republicans with a razor-thin majority, but that’s not even the most interesting aspect of this story.

Healthy functioning institutions don’t see rising stars flee. What is worse, it seems like sane Republicans are the ones choosing to leave. 

I think there are three related reasons why this is happening—and why their departures have been so abrupt. 

First, having decided to get out of Dodge, Gallagher and Buck are probably not interested in wasting time before landing a new, higher-paying job.

Second, they feel no loyalty to their colleagues or party. Frankly, who can blame them? 

Third, they have figured out that the GOP Congress is not a good place to be, unless you are crazy or desperate. 

This all makes sense on the micro level. But think about what this trend will do to the institution at the macro level. 

In health care policy, there is a term called “adverse selection” that helps explain it. You might remember it from the ObamaCare debate. Basically, it’s a situation when sick people sign up for insurance, and young, healthy people opt out. 

That’s basically the state of today’s GOP. It is a place where, as Hayek warned (regarding the Soviet Union), “the worst get on top.”

Or, as Yeats put it, it’s an ecosystem where “The best lack all conviction, while the worst are full of passionate intensity.” 

Speaking of the worst, it’s fitting that the same day Gallagher’s news broke, we also had news about Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene’s motion to oust Speaker Mike Johnson due to his decision to fund the government and avert a partial shutdown. 

I agree that something has to be done to cut spending, but Republicans did the exact opposite when they had the presidency and Congress. And now, they keep playing this game of brinkmanship with our economy. 

When Republicans ousted Speaker Kevin McCarthy and Democrats refused to save him, I thought it was a mistake. Interestingly, today, Democrats are signaling that they might save Speaker Johnson if he angers his own caucus by funding the war in Ukraine. 

I suspect that we all would have been better off if McCarthy, as flawed as he was, were still the Speaker. (In fairness, MTG supported McCarthy.) 

Regardless, the trend is clear. Whether it’s Mike Gallagher, Ken Buck, or Kevin McCarthy, the normies are being pushed out, and they are being supplanted by the MTG’s of the world. 

This is to say, it’s going to get worse before it gets better.

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Don’t miss my recent conversation with New York Times columnist David French about why he believes Joe Biden is actually the better choice for conservatives. You can listen to the audio podcast or watch our video conversation on YouTube.

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STATE OF THE RACE

A year from now, Donald Trump could be bankrupt and in jail, or he could be the President of the United States of America and the most powerful man in the world. Either scenario is entirely plausible. Talk about range. 

Let’s start with a few recent developments that suggest the former option is more likely. Because Trump hasn’t yet come up with a nearly half-billion dollar bond for his civil fraud judgment (note: he says he has the money), New York Attorney General Letitia James has started preparations to seize Trump’s property. 

Should this unprecedented circumstance happen (more on that below), it could decisively scrape away Trump’s gold-plated image and send him into a downward spiral. Or, conversely, it could boost his political fortunes by causing voters to see him as the victim of a system that is pulling out all the stops to destroy his political career. 

Presidential campaigns are always high-stakes affairs, but it’s hard to imagine there has ever been a candidate with more on the line than Trump. Most of Trump’s legal and financial problems will likely disappear (or at least be indefinitely shelved) if he’s elected.

Winning covers a multitude of sins. And yet, those very same legal and financial problems could prevent him from winning in the first place. 

According to new federal filings, Biden has more than twice as much campaign cash on hand as Trump. What is more, according to a new joint fundraising agreement that Trump’s campaign signed with the Republican National Committee, paying Trump’s mounting legal bills will take precedence over funding the RNC. 

These are just some of the underlying reasons why—despite the fact that Trump leads in many national polls—former Mitt Romney strategist Stu Stevens recently predicted that Biden will pull ahead of Trump this fall.

“My image of the Trump campaign is somebody walking around with a paper bag full of water,” Stevens said on MSNBC. “I don’t think it’s going to leak, but I think when this thing goes, it’s going to go quickly. And I think there’s a good chance that we’re going to have a situation like 1980 in reverse, where [Jimmy] Carter was tight with Reagan until the middle of October—and then, kind of the bottom fell out for Carter.”

This scenario certainly sounds plausible. For many of us, it defies logic to believe that—despite all we’ve been through (COVID-19, Jan 6., two impeachments, four indictments, etc.)—Trump could actually win another term. 

On the other hand, Trump continues to be a political Houdini who can always pull another rabbit out of his hat. With apologies to Lou Gehrig, he may be the luckiest man on the face of the earth. 

On Friday, for example, a media merger was finally approved that, according to The New York Times, will result in “raising Mr. Trump’s wealth by billions and potentially providing him a fresh source of cash to pay his mounting legal bills.”

Maybe someday the paper bag full of water will break, and gravity will finally catch up to Trump. But the half-a-billion-dollar question remains: Will it happen between now and November?

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I was recently on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” to discuss the so-called political “double-haters” who are likely to determine who wins the 2024 election. Watch here!