Is Russia's invasion hurting Trump-endorsed candidates?

Josh Kraushaar, the Against the Grain columnist at National Journal, joins Matt to talk about the domestic U.S. political ramifications of Russia’s Ukraine invasion.

Mar 15, 2022

It’s always fun to chat with Josh Kraushaar, the Against the Grain columnist at National Journal. During a recent podcast discussion, Josh offered some interesting insight into how Russia’s invasion of Ukraine might impact domestic American politics.

Following is a lightly edited excerpt from our discussion:

Matt: Do you think Putin's invasion of Ukraine makes it less likely that Donald Trump will be (re)elected president in 2024?

Josh: I've said this for a while now, but I don't think Trump or Biden are gonna be the nominees for their parties in 2024.

Matt: You don't think either of them will be?

Josh: I would bet on two totally different candidates in 2024. So I think as far as Trump goes, if he runs, he certainly would start out as the front runner, but he's not the dominant figure that he was as president. Chris Christie isn’t gonna be the nominee either, but he's gonna probably run against him and throw some punches. And I think there's a mood for someone who's more forward-looking and is going to be focused on issues that voters care about: the economy, education, you know, obviously foreign policy, and Trump's shtick is getting a little old. He's the guy people still love, they still love him playing the Golden Oldies. I'm not sure you can see this in a lot of polls that people are more now loyal to the party itself and Trump.

Matt: Well, that happens sometimes, too. I remember in Maryland, people said, “Bob Ehrlich's great, but we're not gonna vote for him, again.” Some 2024 Republican primary voters might well decide, “Oh, yeah, I love Trump, but I'm voting for someone else.”

Josh: I'm not sure if he runs again. I think it may be a matter of him kind of seeing the writing on the wall. Again, look, if all of Trump's [endorsed] candidates in May… [if] they all lose. That's a pretty big deal. You know, given how successful he was at single-handedly promoting the careers of a whole lot of Republican officials and dooming those that he wanted to punish. If Trump attacks you, it's still very damaging, that's more damaging than an endorsement is to your favor. If [Georgia Gov.] Brian Kemp wins going against David Perdue, that is a sign that Trump is not the all-powerful Emperor, which means he doesn't have the Midas Touch that he did as president. That doesn't mean he's not popular, [it] doesn't mean he still doesn't have influence, but it would show that there's slowly and surely more Republicans are moving away from listening [to] and saying everything that Trump says.

Matt: So what you're saying is the Russia issue could help take down Trump's endorsed candidates who were already struggling? And if Trump’s endorsed candidates lose in 2022, that would make it less likely that Trump would run in 2024?

Josh: Not every Republican candidate endorsed by Trump has said anything about Putin. So I wouldn't go quite that far. But I think just the Trump brand is not quite as powerful as it was a year ago, and that's going to have an impact. And that's gonna make his endorsement not quite as valuable as it was, or it seemed at the time.

Listen to the full length episode here

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