Tim Walz vs. JD Vance
The Midwest is Not Monolithic
The 2024 presidential election could come down to the Rust Belt swing states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. So it’s perhaps fitting that two populist Midwestern politicians – Gov. Tim Walz of Minnesota and Sen. JD Vance of Ohio – will be selling themselves to the American public in tonight’s vice presidential debate.
A lot of commentary has focused on the fact that both of these men hail from the middle of the country. While that is true, these are two very different kinds of guys, with very different political worldviews.
And at least some of these differences reflect the disparate cultures from which they were raised.
Vance, who pulled himself up by his bootstraps to escape a dysfunctional environment (as described in his memoir, Hillbilly Elegy) calls himself a “Scots-Irish hillbilly at heart,” while Walz, a former teacher and high-school football coach (who was born in Nebraska), governs a state settled by Scandinavians.
One telling difference between their states has to do with social capital, or the relationships and networks that connect us and enrich our lives.
According to the Social Capital Project, Minnesota ranks No. 2 in social capital among the 50 states and Washington, D.C., with very high levels of family interaction and social support. Ohio in contrast ranks 29th.
The disparity helps explain why Minnesota Democrats elected a folksy governor who talks about “neighborliness,” while Ohio Republicans increasingly prefer a culture warrior.
You might be thinking: Why does this even matter?
To the degree it does, the reason is because many states still have deep-seated cultural biases that impact their electoral decisions.
During the 2016 Republican primaries, for example, Donald Trump performed poorly in regions with very high social capital — places like Minnesota — where people play cards together and gather for Lutefisk and hotdish in the church basement on Wednesday nights. Conversely, Trump over-performed in areas with low social capital.
So how might this play out in the debate — and on Election Day?
Running mates rarely matter much, but to the degree these populist candidates were selected to appeal to the vital “blue wall” states of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, here’s what I think: Walz’s style will likely appeal to folks in Wisconsin (next door to and similar in profile to Walz’s home state of Minnesota), while Vance might resonate with many voters in Michigan, next door to his home state of Ohio (college football rivalries be damned).
The big fight, as everyone knows, is over Pennsylvania.
Lastly…
I’ll be talking in a bit with the always insightful David Frum.
We will definitely preview tonight’s veep debate, and probably hit on a lot of other topics, as well. Subscribe to my YouTube page, and be notified as soon as it drops!
Go Orioles!
Matt