Will House Speaker Mike Johnson Survive 2025?
Keeping the disparate MAGA coalition together will be one of Trump’s greatest challenges in his second term.
Happy New Year! —
It’s one that promises to be interesting.
Earlier this week, I appeared on Morning Joe to discuss a column I wrote for The Hill. The topic? Whether Donald Trump can hold his disparate coalition together in 2025:
Trump’s coalition is full of internal contradictions. Most recently, this became evident when tech bros like Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy came out in favor of H-1B visas, angering MAGA leaders like Steve Bannon and Laura Loomer. As I noted,
Holding this [MAGA] coalition together will be one of Trump’s greatest challenges in his second term. It’s a happy dilemma, but also a test of political skill.
… A Catch-22 of politics is the fact that once you start governing and making decisions, you’re almost guaranteed to alienate some of the people who put you in office in the first place.
Things could get very interesting. Trump hasn’t even been inaugurated yet, and we’ve already witnessed internecine struggles over a government shutdown, the debt limit, and the aforementioned H-1B visas.
What is more, Friday’s vote to determine whether Speaker Mike Johnson will retain his gavel poses yet another test.
The biggest problem I have with ousting Johnson is that I don’t buy the notion that Johnson — or anybody else who might replace him — could do any better.
As I write in today’s column for The Hill:
Johnson’s rise highlights a broader paradox. Nicknamed “MAGA Mike” and labeled an “election denier” for his efforts to challenge the 2020 results, Johnson was elevated in 2023 as a backbench conservative to counter the Republican establishment represented by Speaker Kevin McCarthy. Yet now, some grassroots voices that celebrated Johnson’s ascent have accused him of being insufficiently committed to the cause.
This recurring cycle raises an uncomfortable question: If every conservative Speaker is eventually accused of “selling out,” is it because all conservatives secretly become establishment insiders? Or does the grassroots right demand policies so extreme or impractical that no leader — however ideologically pure — can effectively govern while adhering to them?
Buckle your seatbelts.
The New Year is about to start with a bang.
In Case You Missed It…
I recently had the chance to talk with veteran political commentator Chris Cillizza, formerly of CNN and The Washington Post. If you’re interested in politics and/or media, this was a wide-ranging conversation that I think you’ll enjoy. Among the many topics we covered, Chris and I weighed in on whether Pete Hegseth will be confirmed as Trump’s Secretary of Defense:
In other news, former president Jimmy Carter passed away this week at the age of 100. On this week’s audio podcast (starting around the 8 minute mark), I re-upped my conversation with author Jon Ward about Carter’s legacy:
For something like 15 years, liberal columnist Bill Scher and I have been doing a weekly podcast. After November’s election, we took a brief hiatus. But if you’re a fan of The DMZ, stay tuned. Bill and I are hoping to record a new episode later this week.
Happy New Year!!!
I wish you a terrific New Year. Thank you for reading and watching my stuff. Please tell a friend, and stay tuned for more in 2025! — Matt