Thank you
, , , , , and many others for tuning into my live video with Washington Monthly’s !So what did the rest of you miss?
After the requisite throat-clearing and performative bonhomie, Bill and I got down to brass tacks: Tariffs, taxes, and the slow-motion implosion of a once-coherent political party.
Bill’s big takeaway — and I’ll try not to butcher it — is this: Over the years, the GOP has shape-shifted through a parade of ideological makeovers, shedding convictions like old snakeskin.
Family values? Optional. Hawkish on Russia? Not anymore. Basic human decency? Long gone.
But low taxes — that is the non-negotiable, the holy relic.
And now, with Trump slapping tariffs around like he’s running a clearance sale (and let’s be clear: tariffs are just a sales tax with better PR), he may have finally crossed the line.
It’s one thing to gut-check the Constitution or cozy up to autocrats, but messing with the tax code? That might actually cause some Republicans to clutch their pearls and tiptoe away from the cult.
Emphasis on might.
Naturally, there’s also the small matter of electoral consequences. These tariffs — functionally just sales taxes in a MAGA hat — could end up costing Republicans at the ballot box.
Bill and I have long assumed the House would revert to Democratic hands in 2026; that’s just the rhythm of things. But now, even the Senate is starting to look like it might wobble.
Bill’s not quite buying it — he’s been around too long to bet on Democrats outperforming expectations — but the math is shifting.
Maine and North Carolina suddenly seem winnable. Bill also floated the idea that former Sen. Sherrod Brown should run again in Ohio.
And then there’s Texas, the graveyard of Democratic hopes, where things might actually get interesting for once. With Attorney General Ken Paxton now taking a swing at Senator John Cornyn, we may get a good old-fashioned intra-party knife fight.
Even if Democrats don’t win, there’s always the possibility that bruised egos and open wounds will do the job for them.
What I’m saying is… stay tuned!
***Quick note on the livestream: this was a soft launch, emphasis on soft. I’d never hosted a Substack Live before and fully assumed I’d press the wrong button and livestream myself making a sandwich. Next time, we’ll schedule it properly and actually let people know it’s happening. Revolutionary, I know.
Join me for my next live video in the app.
Till next time!
Matt
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